Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Do you have passion for what you do?

A nice article by Carmine Gallo, for a little motivation...

It's not every day you get the chance to pick the brain of a man whose real-life rags-to-riches story was turned into a Hollywood movie starring one of America's top actors. But the other day I had the opportunity to spend time with Chris Gardner, subject of the 2006 movie The Pursuit of Happyness, in which Gardner was played by Will Smith.

... I have spent the last several years interviewing inspiring leaders, and I can say without hesitation that passion is the No. 1 quality that sets them apart...

Article source : http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/070724/jul2007sb20070723608918.html?.v=1&.pf=career-work&printer=1

Keep It Simple

Sometimes, with all the noise, all the complexity, all the trading rules...simple is where it is at. Jeffrey Strain recently listed 5 ways on Yahoo Finance where patience can help you achieve wealth. Sure, some of it is the standard issue stuff we all should know, but his points are good reminders.

1. It helps forgo instant gratification: Being patient allows you to wait until you have the money to purchase the things that you want. But it's not easy to show patience in a society where instant gratification is advertised as being the norm and credit is easy to obtain. If you aren't patient, however, it means that you will likely use a credit card to pay for things you don't have the money to pay for. This is how people get into credit card debt, which will deteriorate savings and hinder your ability to become wealthy.

2. It helps you save: Part of being able to save 10% of your take-home pay is making sure that you spend your money wisely. Having the patience to wait until a product's price comes down will go a long way toward helping you build wealth. People who have to have the latest gadgets the instant that they appear end up paying a premium. When the technology becomes more mainstream, its price becomes more reasonable. Having the patience to wait before you buy often is the difference between having 10% to invest and not having it.

3. Patience helps avoid "get rich quick" schemes: Whether it is the lottery or some hot stock pick, the urge to try to get rich quick is glorified in the media. The problem is, most people who are rich don't get there the quick way. Most have built their wealth over time. While the media glamorizes the few who do get rich quick, most people who try that route don't end up wealthy.

4. It helps you stay on your wealth-building plan: Wealth doesn't usually appear instantly and doesn't present itself unexpectedly. It usually takes a well-thought-out plan over a long period of time. Taking the time to build a solid plan and then sticking to it will ensure that you have a much greater chance of creating and keeping your wealth than if you try to make your fortune instantly.

5. Patience helps you look long term: Even if you create a solid wealth-building plan, there will still be bumps in the road. When these bumps occur, it's important that you have the patience to stick to your plan instead of panicking. If you end up abandoning your plan at the first sign of trouble, you will likely end up much less wealthy than if you have the patience to stick to your plan the entire time. Stocks fluctuate over short periods of time, but they usually go up over a long period of time. It's important to take a patient, long-term view in wealth creation.

Article source : http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/cat_psychology.html

Negatively Skewed Trading Strategies

An article titled Negatively Skewed Trading Strategies (PDF) by Glyn A. Holton is definitely worth reading.

Article source : http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/cat_trading_101.html

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Trading as a business

Charlie Wright of Fall River Capital offers some pearls of wisdom about trading as a business:

"Thinking of trading as a business has helped me enormously as a trader. It puts everything into perspective and helps me deal with my own psychological difficulties with trading execution. Once I stopped viewing trading as speculation, my trading improved. Once I realized that I was not going to get rich quick, that trading was not easy money, my trading improved. Once I realized that almost no businesses are successful overnight, my trading improved. Once I realized that I had to make an investment in the business, both in terms of my own education and in equipment and working capital, my trading improved. One concept that is commonly taught in business schools is that of 'barriers to entry.' This is a very simple concept that has important ramifications as you consider trading as a business. The basic principle is that the higher the barriers to entry in a business, the higher the investment to establish market share but ultimately the higher the margins and profits. A good example is the beer business. Controlled by several large breweries, it would be financially very difficult to start up a new brewery and acquire significant market share. When Phillip Morris bought Miller, they spent over a billion dollars to acquire the business and do the advertising and promotion necessary to obtain market share. But Miller was successful, and when they achieved the share of market they wanted, the profits were outstanding. The reverse is also true. If an industry has low barriers to entry, and there is a relatively small up front investment, there is much competition for profits and lower margins. This is the case for many service businesses, real estate brokers, securities brokers, cleaning services, etc. Restaurants are also a relatively low investment business. All you need is some decent space for tables and some cooking equipment and you are in business. However, the competition for customers is intense and thus the margins are low. There is no good or bad when analyzing barriers to entry for a particular industry. If the investment is low, the stress comes from being smarter and superior than everyone else at making money. If the barriers are high, the stress comes from taking the large financial risk and the uncertainty of obtaining the target market share. Either way, the business is always difficult. Trading is a low barrier business. You basically need a computer, a broker, and a modest amount of capital and you are in business. But because of the low barriers to entry, the competition for profits is very high. There is no such thing as gaining market share. Many people wrongly conclude that low barrier businesses are easy to start and trading is no exception. Many new traders think that trading will be easy and they will get rich quick. Experienced traders know that this will not happen. Trading is as difficult as any business I have ever been involved in. The main point to remember is that trading is a business with low barriers to entry. This means that the competition for profits is very high and you will have to be smarter, more disciplined or more creative than the majority to make money."

Article source : http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/cat_trading_101.html

Technical Analysis Definitions

Micheal Covel wrote on the definition of technical analysis :

A definition of technical analysis seen recently:

"Technical analysis uses deviations from the efficient market hypothesis to make best guesses about future movements in the financial markets."

I have a different take in my book:

Now here is where the understanding of technical analysis gets tricky. There are essentially two forms of technical analysis. One form is based on an ability to "read" charts and use "indicators" to divine the market direction. These so-called technical traders use methods designed to attempt to predict a market direction. Here is a great example of the predictive view of technical analysis: "I often hear people swear they make money with technical analysis. Do they really? The answer, of course, is that they do. People make money using all sorts of strategies, including some involving tea leaves and sunspots. The real question is: Do they make more money than they would investing in a blind index fund that mimics the performance of the market as a whole? Most academic financial experts believe in some form of the random-walk theory and consider technical analysis almost indistinguishable from a pseudoscience whose predictions are either worthless or, at best, so barely discernably better than chance as to be unexploitable because of transaction costs." This is the view of technical analysis held by the majority—that it is some form of superstition, like astrology. Technical prediction is the only application of technical analysis that the majority of Wall Streeters are aware of as evidenced by equity research from Credit Suisse First Boston: "The question of whether technical analysis works has been a topic of contention for over three decades. Can past prices forecast future performance?" However there is another type of technical analysis that neither predicts nor forecasts. This type is based on price. Trend followers form the group of technical traders that use this type of analysis. Instead of trying to predict a market direction, their strategy is to react to the market’s movements whenever they occur. Trend followers respond to what has happened rather than anticipating what will happen. They strive to keep their strategies based on statistically validated trading rules. This enables them to focus on the market and not get emotionally involved.

Article source : http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/cat_trading_101.html

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Top 10 Ways To Lose All The Money In Your Trading Account In 30 Days Or Less - Guaranteed!

I came across the list below from 'Craig' here. It is a great list:

#10 - Put all of your efforts into finding the perfect technical indicator. Once you find this magical indicator, it will be like turning on a water faucet. Go all in. The money will just flow into your account!

#9 - When your technical indicator says that the stock is oversold, BUY IT RIGHT THEN. Always do what your technical indicator says to do. It takes precedence over price action.

#8 - Make sure to visit a lot of stock trading forums and ask them for hot stock tips. Also, ask all your friends and family for stock tips. They are usually right, and acting on these tips can make you very rich.

#7 - Watch what other traders do and be sure to follow the crowd. After all, they have been trading a lot longer than you so naturally they are smarter.

#6 - Pay very close attention to the fundamentals of a company. You MUST know the P/E ratio, book value, profit margins, etc. Once you find a "good company", consider going on margin to pay for shares in their stock.

#5 - Forget about developing a trading plan. If you see a good stock just buy it. Don't worry about when your going to sell. No need to get caught up in the details. Besides, you'll probably get rich the first year of trading anyway.

#4 - Buy expensive computers and trading software. While your at it, buy a couple more TV's so that you can watch CNBC on multiple screens! You NEED all of these gadgets in order to trade stocks successfully. Then watch the money roll in!

#3 - Always follow your emotions. They are there for a reason. If you feel nervous, sell the stock! If you are excited, buy more shares. This is the best way to trade stocks and fatten up your trading account.

#2 - Don't worry about using stop loss orders. When the time comes, you will be able to sell your shares and take a loss. Your emotions won't even come into play. Besides, stop loss orders are for sissies!

#1 - Absolutely, without a doubt, FORGET about managing your money. Don't worry about how much you can lose on a trade. Only think about how much loot your gonna make. Then start planning that trip to Fiji

Article source : http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/cat_trading_101.html

The Ten Trading Commandments!

One man's Ten Commandments (PDF). An excerpt:

"Discipline trumps conviction. No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always try to define your risk and, above all, never believe that you're smarter than the market."

Article source : http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/cat_trading_101.html

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Introduction To Trend Following Trading


The best tour of Trend Following trading you can find is the book Trend Following. However, even if you have not yet had a chance to read it, continue reading below to learn more about this still relatively unknown style of trading. What is Trend Following trading? A good definition:

Let's break down the term Trend Following into its components. The first part is "trend". Every trader needs a trend to make money. If you think about it, no matter what the technique, if there is not a trend after you buy, then you will not be able to sell at higher prices..."Following" is the next part of the term. We use this word because trend followers always wait for the trend to shift first, then "follow" it.

Trend Following (and the Turtle trading system) is reactive and systematic by nature. Trend Following does not forecast or predict markets or price levels. Prediction is impossible!

Trend Following demands that you have strong self-discipline to follow precise rules. It involves a risk management system that uses current market price, equity level in an account and current market volatility. Trend Followers use an initial risk rule that determines your position size at the time of entry. This means you know exactly how much to buy or sell based on how much money you have. Changes in price may lead to a gradual reduction or increase of your initial trade. On the other hand, adverse price movements may lead to an exit for your entire trade. Historically, Trend Following trader's average profit per trade is significantly higher than the average loss per trade.

Trend Following is not a Holy Grail. It is not some passing fad or hyped-up secret black box either. Beyond the mere rules, the human element is core to the strategy. It takes discipline and emotional control to stick with Trend Following through the inevitable market ups and downs. Keep in mind though, Trend Followers expect ups and downs. They are planned for in advance.

What must all trend followers consider?

Price: One of the first rules of Trend Following is that price is the main concern. If a market is at 60 and goes to 58, 57, 53 - the market is in a down trend. Despite what every technical indicator might predict, if the trend is down, stay with the trend. Indicators showing where price will go next or what it should be doing are useless. A trader need only be concerned with what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The price tells you what the market is doing.
Money Management: The most critical factor of Trend Following is not the timing of the trade or the indicator, but rather the determination of how much to trade over the course of the trend.

Risk Control: Trend Following is grounded in a system of risk control and money management. The math is straightforward and easy to learn. During periods of higher market volatility, your trading size is reduced. During losing periods, positions are reduced and trade size is cut back. The main objective is to preserve capital until more favorable price trends reappear. Cutting losses is the way to stay in the game.

Rules Rule: Trend Following should be systematic. Price and time are pivotal at all times. Trend Following is not based on an analysis of fundamental supply or demand factors. Trend Following does NOT involve seasonals, point and figure, Market Profile, triangles or day trading.

Trend Following answers these critical questions:

1. How and when to enter the market.
2. How many contracts or shares to trade at any time.
3. How much money to risk on each trade.
4. How to exit the trade if it becomes unprofitable.
5. How to exit the trade if it becomes profitable.

Conclusions

If you want in-and-out day trading, we can't help. Good Trend Following systems (including the Turtle trading system) average five or six trades per market per year. What do you need to get started?
  1. An active mind, willingness to learn and passion to win.
  2. No knowledge of what an Italian bond is worth or what companies comprise the S&P or FTSE index. The key is the price on the chart.
  3. Discipline and common sense to do the right thing per all rules.
  4. About an hour each day at the end of the day to check trades.
  5. A PC and telephone line (or internet connection).


Trading is a zero-sum game. For every winner, there is a loser. What's the difference between winners and losers? Smarts and strategy. For every loser in the NASDAQ implosion there was a winner. Does this mean that there are traders with neither strategy nor smarts actively losing, effectively shifting their funds to the winners, armed with strategy and smarts? Yes, absolutely.

Article source : http://www.turtletrader.com/it.html

Wonder what makes a professional trader?

Brett Steenbarger writes on his blog about what makes a professional trader. Nice article. Below is the complete article :

Here are a few observations that have hit me between the eyes over the past several days:

1) Many of the best traders follow and trade a variety of markets. They go where the opportunity is. When volatility dries up in one market, they have others to turn to. The small, neophyte retail trader often becomes pigeonholed in one market and overtrades it, desperate to turn a small account into a larger one. The professional trader may have a top-down or bottom-up perspective on markets (developing ideas from big economic trends or from individual company and sector results), but they have a framework for how to think about markets. Inexperienced traders lack such a framework.

2) Many of the best traders think big--as in big picture. Because they follow multiple markets, they are aware of the relationships among these markets. This enables them to develop trade ideas that connect one market to another, capitalizing on big picture themes. Knowing how interest rate differentials around the world affect capital flows is an obvious example of that. Another example is knowing how one asset is priced relative to others to capitalize on mispricing. The novice trader trades small patterns, losing sight of the context in which those patterns occur. They lack a framework for thinking about proper and improper pricing.

3) All of the best trading firms have risk managers. They stay on top of how individual traders (and the firm as a whole) are performing. They help traders adjust their position sizes to fit their portfolio needs, and they help traders during drawdown periods. It is very difficult for individual, solo traders to fill this role for themselves. The excellent traders spend significant time and effort on risk management: they know how much they want to gain and put at risk in each trade. Small traders tend to put a far larger portion of their capital at risk with each trade than large, professional traders.

4) Many of the best traders think small--as in very reasonable profit goals. This is very interesting. I never hear the pros talking about tripling their money in a year. It's the small traders, feeling a desperate need for a kill in order to make a living, who take those kind of risks. Many of the best traders I know focus on consistency and favorable risk-adjusted returns. I essentially never hear small, retail traders focus on risk-adjusted returns. I don't think I've ever met a retail trader who knows what his or her Sharpe Ratio is, for example. I don't think most newer traders could even explain the concept of VAR.

5) Many of the best traders use psychology to amplify strengths. This is one thing that a majority of "trading coaches" don't get. They are so accustomed to working with small, retail traders that their vision becomes limited to the kinds of problems that beginners have. On average, if a person lacks discipline, emotional control, etc., they don't get hired at a good firm. The best traders do experience drawdowns, but they work on themselves to identify and build strengths, not to develop simplistic "trading plans". A great deal of what's out there labeled as "trading psychology" could be relabeled as the psychology of the beginning trader. It's not that it's useless; it's that it doesn't speak to the seasoned professional. To the extent that trading shrinks emphasize positive thinking as the key to trading success, they don't understand trading--and what it takes to generate alpha--at all.

Ultimately, whether one is a professional or an amateur is a function of their approach to their work, not their setting. It is, of course, easier to live up to professionalism when you're surrounded by professionals. The best traders I know spend significant time generating trade ideas, researching markets, and staying on top of developments world wide. The ratio of time spent in preparation to time spent actually in trading has, in my experience, been a worthwhile measure of a trader's professionalism--regardless of setting. The best traders, like the best athletes, are always working on themselves, always refining what they do. In an important sense, they don't just use psychology to improve their performance. They work on their performance as a means of extending their personal mastery.

A small trader can approach his or her craft professionally. There are few models, however, for such professionalism--particularly when many of the "gurus" themselves do not begin to approximate what the pros are doing.

Article source : http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/05/what-makes-professional-trader.html

Taking a loss!

From Trader Daily:

The most common reason traders are reluctant to take a loss is their fear that once they do, the trade will rebound. Sound familiar? If this is how you think about taking losses, try to recognize that this kind of thinking might well prevent you from reaching your potential. It might even destroy your career. So stop trying to be right all the time - trading is a game of probabilities, which means winning and losing are necessary components. No one gives a bonus check to the trader who was 'right' the most over the course of the year. To coin a phrase, wrong happens. Great traders know how to implement damage control and are willing to take a loss. Are they scared and hesitant? Of course, but that doesn't prevent them from doing what they need to do to stay in the game. If George Washington hadn't decided to abort the Battle of Brooklyn and cede Manhattan to the British at the start of the Revolutionary War, for example, we'd all be eating 'crisps' and watching the 'telly' right now. He took a loss - but lived to fight on. That's what true champions must sometimes do. A client of mine - I'll call him Aaron - is a bond trader at a major bank. He was earning seven figures annually but envisioned taking his game to another level. During our first meeting, Aaron showed me his numbers, proudly pointing out that he was winning a healthy 81 percent of his trades. He rambled on, saying that his number was the highest in his group and telling me his managers had asked him to train other traders to be as 'consistent as I am.' I looked Aaron straight in the eye. 'Was your performance bonus based on your winning percentage?' I asked him. He paused. 'No,' he replied. 'Exactly my point,' I told him. Put simply, Aaron needed to stop obsessing about being right and start focusing on making money. Several follow-up meetings made it clear that he was taking his winners quickly and holding his losers way too long, even adding to them in some cases. I challenged him to think about what might be triggering this tendency. 'The trade can always come back,' he told me. 'Maybe I'm just not giving it enough time.' That's not an answer; it's a rationalization. 'Come on,' I told him. 'You're either a control freak or a perfectionist, but you always seem to have to be right. And this is limiting your ability to reach your potential.' Aaron, I was discovering, was afraid to admit when he was wrong. So I presented him with a simple formula to help him get out of his own way: H + W + P = E. Hoping + Wishing + Praying = Exit the trade now!


Doug Hirschhorn, a former Division I baseball player and commodities trader, has a Ph.D. in sport psychology. He is the coauthor of The Trading Athlete and has served as trading coach for Deutsche Bank, Schonfeld Securities and Balyasny Asset Management. He is currently a consultant for financial institutions, trading firms and hedge funds. E-mail him at headcoach@tradermonthly.com.

Article source : http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/cat_trading_101.html